Southern California’s Congressional Showdowns: Key Races That Could Shape the House Majority
Southern California’s congressional races are heating up, with the outcomes poised to play a pivotal role in determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Experts are keeping a close watch on four key contests spanning Orange, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties, where the stakes couldn’t be higher.
A Surprising Contest in Orange County
UC Irvine political science professor Lou DeSipio highlighted the unexpectedly competitive race between Democrat Derek Tran and incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in the 45th District. “I thought it was a slam dunk for Steel,” DeSipio admitted. “But Tran has raised a lot of money, built his name recognition, and gained momentum. It could go either way.”
Tran, an Army veteran whose family fled Vietnam’s communist regime, has gone toe-to-toe with Steel in a heated campaign. Steel, who is Korean, even controversially claimed she was “more Vietnamese” than Tran, a remark that sparked backlash. DeSipio observed that Tran effectively countered, boosting his credibility among voters.
Vietnamese voters, historically a strong GOP bloc in the area, could shift with a second-generation electorate more open to Democratic candidates. Tran’s ability to secure national backing and fundraising success is making this a race to watch.
Meanwhile, local Democratic leader Ada Briceño suggested recent scandals might weigh on Steel. Former ally and ex-Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do’s bribery conviction could sour some voters. “I’ve talked to many Republicans crossing over for Tran,” Briceño said. “They’re not just voting for him—they’re hosting events and donating.”
Still, Orange County GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker expressed confidence in Steel’s campaign. “She’s a relentless campaigner. We’re very optimistic,” he said.
A Battle for the 47th District
Another tight race is unfolding in the 47th District, where Republican Scott Baugh is making a second attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Baugh faces state Sen. Dave Min, a Democrat whose campaign has been clouded by a drunk driving conviction.
Cal State Fullerton professor Matt Jarvis noted that the incident has hurt Min’s standing. “The drunk driving thing really seems to have had legs,” Jarvis said. “It’s penetrated.”
Democrats, however, are pouring resources into Min’s campaign, recognizing the district as critical to their hopes of flipping the House.
The Wildcard in Riverside County
In Riverside County, Rep. Ken Calvert faces Democrat Will Rollins in a district that blends conservative Inland Empire voters with the liberal bastion of Palm Springs. “It’s a fascinating dynamic,” Jarvis said. “This race could shift the center of gravity in the district.”
The Broader Picture
Nationwide implications loom large, as the House majority teeters on a razor-thin margin. Jarvis believes Republicans will narrowly hold the chamber but acknowledged that former President Donald Trump’s presence on the ballot complicates GOP prospects. “Trump is box office poison in urban Orange County,” Jarvis said.
Democrats currently enjoy a voter registration advantage in Orange County and have tied the numbers in the 47th District. Whether that translates into wins at the ballot box remains to be seen.
A Long Wait for Results
As Californians wait for their ballots to be counted, election-watchers may look to similar districts on the East Coast for clues about which party will control Congress. “California takes longer to count,” Jarvis said. “We’ll be watching other states to get a sense of where things stand.”
For now, Southern California’s congressional contests are shaping up to be decisive battles in the fight for the House Speaker’s gavel, with every vote carrying weight in these closely contested districts.
